How is the ridership forecast calculated for the extension of metro 1 to Val de Fontenay? What are its results?

The use of the extension of metro 1 to Val de Fontenay was estimated using the ANTONIN 4 travel demand forecasting model of Île-de-France Mobilités, used for all projects in the Ile-de-France region and developed for more than 25 years. This model is built using the observation of the mobility of Ile-de-France residents through the Global Transport Survey, available on the website of the Mobility Observatory in Île-de-France (OMNIL.fr). The model first reproduces the situation observed today before being projected to 2040. It takes into account both the evolution of the transport network, and the territorial evolution (population-employment) provided by the Paris Region Institute. It also takes into account the rise in teleworking following the health crisis. It makes it possible to make ridership forecasts and estimate the distribution of trips on the network with or without the extension of metro 1 for the same horizon: 2040. It makes it possible to verify that the capacity of the transport project is compatible with future needs and to assess the effects on other transport.

According to the results of this model, the extension of metro 1 would accommodate about 81,000 passengers per day of full traffic (on a Tuesday or Thursday). During the morning rush hour, 7,200 passengers would use the busiest section, between Les Rigollots and Château de Vincennes (towards Paris): a volume suitable for a metro, but too large for a tramway. The majority flows would be reversed in the evening. The users would come mainly from the territory but also from all over eastern Paris. 40% of users would be connecting with the RER A, RER E or metro line 15 (80% of these 40% would be connecting with metro 15, both in origin and destination); the remaining 60% would depart from or arrive near the new stations. According to the elements presented, the project thus meets both a need for local service and network networking.

Consult the methodology of the extension's attendance forecasts, its results and its area of influence in the consultation file: chapter 5, p.141 to 147.